Macau’s economy continued its recovery in the third quarter of 2024, with GDP growing by 4.7 percent year-on-year, according to from the Statistics and Census Service. Bolstered by the gaming sector’s strong performance, the city’s overall economic output has returned to 87.3 percent of its pre-pandemic size in Q3 2019.

Gaming exports lead charge

The driving force behind Macau’s economic rebound remains its gaming industry. Exports of gaming services rose by 11.2 percent year-on-year in Q3, contributing significantly to the 1.3 percent growth in overall service exports. For the first nine months of 2024, gaming service exports surged 28.4 percent compared to the same period in 2023.

This growth aligns with Citigroup’s observations of increased premium gaming activity, as the number of high-value players, or “whales,” rose, and average wager sizes increased by 73 percent year-on-year. The introduction of smart gaming tables and innovative side bets has further enhanced casinos’ operational efficiency and revenue potential.

A tale of two tourism metrics

While gaming thrives, other tourism-related services reported a contrasting trend. Exports of non-gaming tourism services declined by 14.5 percent in Q3 and by 6.1 percent for the first nine months of 2024. The drop is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year, despite an increase of nearly 15 percent compared to 2019 levels.

Broader economic indicators

Macau’s GDP for the of 2024 expanded by 11.5 percent year-on-year to MOP301 billion (US$37.54 billion), surpassing the MOP300 billion mark for the first time since 2019. Private consumption grew by 5.8 percent, driven by higher household incomes and an improving labour market. Meanwhile, private investment rose sharply, with equipment investment up 31.5 percent and construction investment climbing 11.6 percent.

However, government expenditure fell by 10.1 percent due to the cessation of pandemic-related subsidy programs, offsetting some of the gains in domestic demand.

The role of smart tables and side bets

Macau’s gaming operators have accelerated the deployment of smart gaming tables, which enhance gameplay speed and capture precise betting data. Leading casinos such as Melco Resorts’ Studio City and Sands China’s Venetian Macao have fully integrated these systems in premium gaming areas. Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings highlighted the technology’s potential to drive personalised marketing and customer engagement during the company’s Q3 earnings call.

In addition to operational efficiencies, the introduction of side bets, such as Sands China’s “6s” and “7s” games, is helping casinos boost hold rates and attract more premium players. Citigroup analysts noted that these innovations are reshaping the gaming landscape, adding momentum to Macau’s recovery.

Challenges and forecasts

Despite the positive trends, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Macau to 10.6 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 13.9 percent. The adjustment reflects the uneven recovery in tourism services and external economic uncertainties.

Outlook

Macau’s ability to leverage its gaming sector, supported by technological innovation and high-stakes players, continues to drive its post-pandemic economic revival. With the full rollout of smart tables and a robust Lunar New Year season on the horizon, analysts remain optimistic about the city’s long-term growth trajectory.

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